In the midst of a France overtaken by protest, panic, and the Gilets jaunes in recent days, the vision of French President Emmanuel Macron as antidote to the populist wave in France and elsewhere in Europe is being shaken.
“There is no little irony in the fact that the man who was seen as the answer to populism has provoked the most high-profile demonstration of populist rage Europe has yet seen,” writes Larry Elliott, economics editor of The Guardian. Upon taking office, Macron “thought he had a powerful mandate for structural reform. He cut taxes for the rich, made it easier for companies to hire and fire, and took on the rail unions. It was only a matter of time before the backlash began.”
“Politicians need to realize that the financial crisis and a decade of flatlining living standards have made a difference to what is and what isn’t politically feasible,” Elliott writes. “It is feasible – indeed, desirable – to use the tax system to tackle climate change, but only if the hit to living standards is fully offset by cuts in other taxes. Otherwise it is simply more of the austerity that voters everywhere are rejecting. And it is politically suicidal to be known as the president of the wealthy and then tell voters angry about rising fuel prices to car share or take public transport.”
That’s tantamount to Marie Antoinette’s “let them eat cake.”
Conflict with China neither Trade War nor Cold War
Canadian officials have arrested Meng Wanzhou, CFO of Huawei, a telecommunications giant and “China’s largest private enterprise by revenue.” The arrest, described in Chinese media as a “kidnapping,” is widely seen as exacerbating tensions in an ongoing US-China trade war.
The arrest, which Chinese media have called a “kidnapping,” disrupts the conciliatory mood thought to have been created last week at the dinner between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. High-tech has immediately been thrust to the forefront of the 90-day trade negotiations.
In a development certain to enrage the Chinese, Trump National Security Adviser John Bolton told National Public Radio on Thursday that he “knew in advance” that the arrest was coming. Bolton said he did not know whether Trump knew going into the dinner with Xi.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau told reporters that his government was not politically involved in the arrest, citing judicial independence.
“The appropriate authorities took the decisions in this case without any political involvement or interference. … We were advised by them with a few days’ notice that this was in the works,” he said. “But of course there was no engagement or involvement in the political level in this decision, because we respect the independence of our judicial processes.”
Reuters reported that Meng was arrested as part of a U.S. investigation of an alleged scheme to use the global banking system to evade U.S. sanctions against Iran.(Nikkei)
But to understand what’s really at stake in the struggle between the US and China, it’s crucial to get our terms right, writes David Zweig for Financial Times. “[T]his is not a trade war. The fight over trade is merely a skirmish in a larger technology war, which itself is a component of a long struggle between a global hegemon—the US—seeking to maintain its dominance, and an ascending challenger—China—that feels it has a moral right to reclaim its status as a great power.” It’s not a cold war, either: the two sides are not extricable without disastrous consequences economically, strategically, and militarily.
Faced with Chinese appropriation of US technology, the Trump administration could constrain cooperation with the Chinese to “areas of common interest, such as global health, climate change, nuclear non-proliferation, North Korea, and deterring terrorism,” while excluding Chinese students and researchers from work related to national security and limiting Chinese funding of US tech companies.
Those who advocate “decoupling” risk billions to universities, communities, the tourism industry, corporations, and the mitigation of military confrontations—i.e. the chance to avert real war.
If such a strategy is pursued, “China will attribute this policy to US racism, while the US will no longer be able to argue that it is not trying to contain its rival.” And US allies, pursuing their own interests with China, may not fall in line.
“The Trump administration’s goal is to end China’s state-directed industrial policy. As China is unlikely to concede, this tech war will aggravate Sino-US relations and, if ‘disengagement’ ensues,” writes Zweig, “we are in for a much more rocky road than the imposition of a new cold war might suggest.”
Will the Center Hold in Post-Merkel Germany?
In Germany, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is on the verge of electing a new leader, as German Chancellor Angela Merkel, “arguably the most powerful woman in the world,” prepares to step aside. (CNN)
Tomorrow’s election “will mark the first open leadership contest within Germany’s dominant party in decades,” at a moment when “mainstream parties across Europe continue to struggle in the face of challenges from upstart movements and the far right, ambitious CDU pols have seized the moment to launch a rare, broader debate about the direction of their party and the country.” writes Emily Schultheis in The Atlantic.
But as much as they may prefer to focus on political renewal, the three contenders for the top job—a former political rival of Merkel, an unofficially anointed successor, and an ambitious young member of her cabinet—are stuck between promising change and honoring Merkel’s outsize legacy. Hanging over the discussion is the question of what, exactly, Merkel’s towering political presence has done to Germany. Did she help the CDU ascend to new electoral heights, shifting its positions where necessary to capture the political zeitgeist? Or did she dilute her party’s identity, creating an opening for the rise of the far-right populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) and plunging the CDU into the same crisis facing its counterparts across Europe?
Merkel herself “has not only mostly resisted pressure to shift toward the far right, but also moved the party pragmatically to the left over the years, on issues ranging from energy and the environment to immigration and same-sex marriage.”
The candidates’ “most charged exchanges have been over migration, easily the most controversial aspect of Merkel’s tenure”—the same debate facing center-right parties all over Europe. “With right-wing populism chipping away at their former dominance, these parties have largely chosen to either stand their ground in hopes that voters eventually come back, or mimic the rhetoric and policies of the far right to beat it at its own game.”
The three contenders for Merkel’s job “are stuck between promising change and honoring Merkel’s outsize legacy.” Were Merkel’s politics shrewd, or “did she dilute her party’s identity, creating an opening for the rise of the far-right populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) and plunging the CDU into the same crisis facing its counterparts across Europe?”
“Whoever wins will have to balance the CDU’s desire for something new with the consequences of 18 years of Merkelism, the demands of the party, and the priorities of the wider electorate.”
“The Nobel Prize for Climate Catastrophe”
William Nordhaus, an economist known for his work on climate change, will receive the Nobel Prize in Economics this weekend. The award has heartened many who see the award as “giving climate the attention it deserves, just as the world is waking up to the severity of our ecological emergency.”
But, writes Jason Hickel in Foreign Policy, many climate scientists “believe that the failure of the world’s governments to pursue aggressive climate action over the past few decades is in large part due to arguments that Nordhaus has advanced.”
It all comes down to “the question of growth. The stakes couldn’t be higher. After all, this isn’t just a matter of abstract academic debate; the future of human civilization hangs in the balance.”
Nordhaus showed that a rapid reduction in carbon emissions “would significantly slow down the rate of economic growth.” Nordhaus has therefore advocated for “‘balance’ between climate mitigation and GDP growth.” Sympathetic economists have figured that climate catastrophes “will not really hurt the global economy all that much… [b]ecause if climate breakdown ends up starving and displacing a few hundred million impoverished Africans and Asians, that will register as only a tiny blip in GDP.” Similarly, “sectors most vulnerable to global warming—agricultural, forestry, and fishing—contribute relatively little to global GDP, only about 4 percent. So even if the entire global agricultural system were to collapse in the future, the costs, in terms of world GDP, would be minimal.”
“These arguments obviously offend common sense,” writes Hickel. “And indeed, scientists have been quick to critique them. It’s absurd to believe that the global economy would just keep chugging along despite a collapse in the world’s food supply.”
“Can’t we have it both ways? Can’t we have economic growthand stay under 1.5 degrees Celsius? Well, that might have been possible a few decades ago,” Hickel writes, “but it’s too late now—we put off the energy transition for far too long, thanks to Nordhaus and the prophets of postponement.”
Vice President Pence: George H.W. Bush ‘Never Failed to Answer the Call to Serve His Country’
As former President George H. W. Bush lay in state at the United States Capitol last night, Vice President Mike Pence offered condolences on behalf of the Nation to the Bush family and honored the 41st President’s extraordinary life.
“While he was known as the ‘quiet man,’ it was not for lack of nerve or daring,” the Vice President said of the 41st commander in chief, with former President George W. Bush and other Bush family members in attendance. “Today, on behalf of the First Family, and my family, and the American people, we offer our deepest sympathies and respects to your family. And we thank you for sharing this special man with our nation and the world.”Pence discussed Bush’s life and how he enlisted to fight in World War II on his 18th birthday and became the nation’s youngest naval aviator. During his service, Bush was nearly killed after his aircraft was hit and caught on fire. Bush managed to hit his target and was later rescued by American forces. He went on to fly 58 combat missions.
Later in his speech, Pence talked about Bush serving as former President Ronald Reagan’s vice president, before serving as president for one term.
“But as history records, during those years he set the standard as a sound counselor and loyal adviser to an outsider who came to Washington, D.C. to shake things up, to cut taxes, rebuild the military. And together, they did just that,” Pence said. “And then, in 1988, he made history again when George Herbert Walker Bush was elected in a landslide as the 41st president of the United States of America, becoming the first sitting vice president to win the presidency in more than 150 years of our history.”
“He [Bush] served during an uncertain time in the world, made momentous by his leadership. President Bush oversaw the fall of the Soviet Union, the crumbling of the Berlin Wall, and under his leadership, America won the Cold War,” Pence continued. “He took our nation to war to repel aggression in the Persian Gulf and, through his leadership as commander in chief and the brilliance of our armed forces, the United States won a decisive victory.”
Pence then praised Bush’s leadership and dedication to his family and friends.
“When President George Herbert Walker Bush left office, he left America and the world more peaceful, prosperous, and secure,” Pence said. “President Bush was a great leader who made a great difference in the life of this nation. But he was also just a good man who was devoted to his wife, his family, and his friends.”
Later in his speech, Pence reflected on Bush sending his son, Michael Pence, a first lieutenant in the Marines, a package that included a signed picture of the U.S.S. George H.W. Bush flight deck and a letter after the younger Pence made his first tailhook landing on the aircraft carrier named after the 41st president.
“Though we have not met, I share the pride your father has for you during this momentous occasion,” Bush wrote. “And I wish you many CAVU days ahead.”
CAVU stands for Ceiling and Visibility Unlimited, an acronym used by Navy pilots dating back to World War II to describe the ideal weather for flying.
President Trump, first lady visit George H.W. Bush’s casket at US Capitol after emotional ceremony
“Hours after the body of former President George H.W. Bush arrived at the U.S. Capitol on Monday, President Trump and first lady Melania Trump paid their respects to the 41st president of the United States. Trump visited the late president’s flag-draped casket in the building’s rotunda, where Bush will lie in state until Wednesday morning before being transported to the National Cathedral for a private state funeral, which Trump is scheduled to attend,” Nicole Darrah writes in Fox News.
The pair stood in front of the casket with their eyes closed for a few moments on Monday night. The 45th president saluted the casket, before he and the first lady left the rotunda.
EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT GEORGE H.W. BUSH’S FUNERAL AND MEMORIAL SERVICES
Trump didn’t attend an earlier ceremony that was held to honor Bush at the Capitol. Vice President Mike Pence and other top lawmakers spoke and reflected on Bush’s military record and service. Bush, Pence said, “never failed to answer the call to serve his country.”
The current vice president remembered when the elder Bush sent his son — who recently became a Naval aviator, just like Bush once was — a hand-written letter in August, shortly after Pence was told Bush had stopped his practice of signing autographs.
“But little to my surprise, just in time for my son’s winging, there not only came a signed photograph but, of course, a letter,” Pence said. Bush was often known for sending handwritten letters to loved ones, friends and politicians, among others.
Pence said that within the letter, Bush told his son, “Though we have not met, I share the pride your father has for you during this momentous occasion, and I wish you many CAVU days ahead. All the best, G. Bush.”
CAVU is an acronym Navy pilots have used, meaning “ceiling and visibility unlimited.” Bush, according to Military.com, used the term on his 80th birthday.
“In the Navy, we young pilots all prayed for CAVU — Ceiling and Visibility Unlimited. But, you see, that is where my life is now,” Bush said. “Thanks to my family and my friends, my life is CAVU.”
In addition to serving as president, Bush also served as a vice president for two terms under President Ronald Reagan. Pence said Bush joked that there was “nothing substantive to do at all” going into that job, but that he was “a sound counselor and loyal adviser to an outsider who came to Washington, D.C., to shake things up, cut taxes, rebuild the military, and together they did just that.”
Bush’s casket, along with members of the Bush family, arrived on Capitol Hill just before 5 p.m. ET as part of the nation’s formal farewell. A military honor guard marched Bush’s casket into the rotunda.
Former presidents or prominent politicians customarily lie in state. Gerald Ford, who died at the end of 2006, was the last president to do so in late 2006 through early 2007.
GEORGE H.W. BUSH REMEMBERED BY 3 FORMER PRESIDENTS AS ‘ONE OF THE BEST PREPARED’ IN HISTORY
Once Bush lies in state, his casket will be transported by motorcade on Wednesday morning to the National Cathedral, where an invitation-only state funeral will be held. President Donald Trump, who ordered federal offices closed on Wednesday for a national day of mourning, is scheduled to attend with first lady Melania Trump.
Bush’s body will then return to Houston, where a public viewing of his casket will be held before a private funeral service on Thursday. He will be buried in a family plot at the George H.W. Bush Presidential Library and Museum in College Station.
Earlier Monday, Bush, his family, and the late president’s former service dog, Sully, arrived at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland, just outside of Washington, D.C., around 3:30 p.m. ET. The casket was flown in from Ellington Field Joint Reserve Base, a Texas Air National Guard base, aboard an aircraft that often serves as Air Force One.
Upon their arrival, the former first family was greeted with ceremonial music and a 21-gun salute before Bush’s casket was placed inside of a hearse.
Liz Peek: Trump scores big wins at the G-20
“President Trump scored major successes at the G-20 summit that concluded over the weekend in Argentina. Specifically, the community of nations agreed in their official communique to ‘necessary reform’ of the World Trade Organization, a top White House priority,” financial expert Liz Peek writes in Fox News. “In addition, the Chinese promised to up their purchases of U.S.- made goods and to discuss other demands in exchange for postponing an expected hike in tariffs.”
These are not new allegations. In 2013, the National Bureau of Asian Research published the IP Commission Report, which detailed China’s misbehavior – cheating which led them to agree with the “assessment by the Commander of the United States Cyber Command and Director of the National Security Agency, General Keith Alexander, that the ongoing theft of IP is “the greatest transfer of wealth in history.” Millions of jobs and hundreds of billions of dollars in valuable intellectual property were vanishing into China each year.
The relentless quest for technology that allowed China to climb the value chain, to rise from manufacturing t-shirts to fighter jets, has been aided and abetted by our biggest businesses, and by the World Trade Organziation. Multinational corporations have put up with Beijing’s cheating because they wanted access to China’s growing consumer market. Only recently have they become more outspoken about China’s abusive practices. The WTO has put up with it because no one demanded a change.
Until now. President Trump is not intent on overthrowing the rules-based order, as critics charge; he wants to make it better. The recent G-20 gathering was a step in the right direction. It could not have happened without the clear threat of punitive tariffs on Chinese exports. The trade skirmish has slowed China’s growth to the weakest level in a decade, damaged their currency, and rocked their stock market. Leading indicators for China’s economy are dropping, with manufacturing and exports weakening. Pressure on President Xi as he traveled to the G-20 was extreme; his leadership has recently been publicly criticized, a rare and unwelcome slap at his increasingly autocratic rule.
China cannot be trusted to follow through on its promises. But, Americans can celebrate the determination of the Trump White House to keep the pressure on. In 90 days, if Beijing prevaricates, tariffs will increase. Of that there is no doubt.
President Trump will get no credit from the liberal press for the progress being made in our trade relations. But open-minded Americans should consider this: it would have been very easy in the lead-up to the midterm elections for the White House to have announced some sort of deal with Beijing, aimed at pleasing Trump-supporting farmers who have suffered from the trade battles or business leaders who fear for their bottom lines. Such an announcement would have buoyed stock prices and helped GOP candidates tout the strong economy.
The Trump White House has instead committed itself to exposing and correcting a serious problem that has hurt American workers and businesses and should be applauded by all; I’m not holding my breath.
Census confirms: 63 percent of ‘non-citizens’ on welfare, 4.6 million households
“A majority of ‘non-citizens,’ including those with legal green card rights, are tapping into welfare programs set up to help poor and ailing Americans, a Census Bureau finding that bolsters President Trump’s concern about immigrants costing the nation,” Paul Bedard reports for the Washington Examiner. “In a new analysis of the latest numbers, from 2014, 63 percent of non-citizens are using a welfare program, and it grows to 70 percent for those here 10 years or more, confirming another concern that once immigrants tap into welfare, they don’t get off it.”
The Center for Immigration Studies said in its report that the numbers give support for Trump’s plan to cut non-citizens off welfare from the “public charge” if they want a green card that allows them to legally work in the United States.
“The Trump administration has proposed new ‘public charge’ rules making it harder for prospective immigrants to qualify for lawful permanent residence — green cards — if they use or are likely to use U.S. welfare programs,” said CIS.
“Concern over immigrant welfare use is justified, as households headed by non-citizens use means-tested welfare at high rates. Non-citizens in the data include illegal immigrants, long-term temporary visitors like guest workers, and permanent residents who have not naturalized. While barriers to welfare use exist for these groups, it has not prevented them from making extensive use of the welfare system, often receiving benefits on behalf of U.S.-born children,” added the Washington-based immigration think tank.
The numbers are huge. The report said that there are 4,684,784 million non-citizen households receiving welfare.
And nearly all, 4,370,385, have at least one worker in the house..
In their report, Steven A. Camarota, the director of research, and Karen Zeigler, a demographer at the Center, said that in census data, about half of those are in the United States illegally.
Their key findings in the analysis:
In 2014, 63 percent of households headed by a non-citizen reported that they used at least one welfare program, compared to 35 percent of native-headed households.
Welfare use drops to 58 percent for non-citizen households and 30 percent for native households if cash payments from the Earned Income Tax Credit are not counted as welfare. EITC recipients pay no federal income tax. Like other welfare, the EITC is a means-tested, anti-poverty program, but unlike other programs one has to work to receive it.
Compared to native households, non-citizen households have much higher use of food programs (45 percent vs. 21 percent for natives) and Medicaid (50 percent vs. 23 percent for natives).
Including the EITC, 31 percent of non-citizen-headed households receive cash welfare, compared to 19 percent of native households. If the EITC is not included, then cash receipt by non-citizen households is slightly lower than natives (6 percent vs. 8 percent).
While most new legal immigrants (green card holders) are barred from most welfare programs, as are illegal immigrants and temporary visitors, these provisions have only a modest impact on non-citizen household use rates because: 1) most legal immigrants have been in the country long enough to qualify; 2) the bar does not apply to all programs, nor does it always apply to non-citizen children; 3) some states provide welfare to new immigrants on their own; and, most importantly, 4) non-citizens (including illegal immigrants) can receive benefits on behalf of their U.S.-born children who are awarded U.S. citizenship and full welfare eligibility at birth.
Emmanuel Macron’s presidency reached a “tipping point” this weekend, after anti-government protests that were “more virulent than anything we’ve seen in France since 1968,” writes Jérôme Fenoglio in Le Monde, according to a translation by CNN.
Macron faces “a deeply rooted crisis for which he bears very partial responsibility,” Fenoglio writes. The “failure of successive governments has allowed anger to prosper,” as feelings of “fiscal and social injustice” fester.
“All the principles that made candidate Macron’s campaign successful have boomeranged and made apparent the fragility of the president,” Fenoglio argues. “The commando operation of back then is now a man on his own, with only a handful of loyalists placed in key positions. The blank slate on which reforms were to be written has become a deserted scene that the presidential party is unable to fill.”
Permanent instability
First, a crisis with deep roots, of which it is only partially accountable: a questioning of thirty years of the system and political representation, to which is added a powerlessness of ten years to really respond to the consequences of the 2008 crisis. Among the “yellow vests”, composed of representatives of the middle and popular classes living mainly in rural and medium-sized cities, this bankruptcy of successive governments has allowed anger to flourish on the most powerful ferments, the feeling unfairness, both territorial, fiscal and social.
Then, the instantaneity of the exchanges on the social networks: it is this short time, on Facebook mainly, which built the mobilization of the “yellow vests” in a form of completely new engagement on this scale. But he is also at the origin of this Brownian movement which creates a permanent instability among the protesters, where the claims accumulate and end up being annihilated by being contradictory, where the spokespersons are delegitimized to the second. where they appear, where the permanent discussion does not allow to get along with each other nor to listen to what the rulers might propose.
A major handicap
It’s even more complicated in the face of an executive power that can not get out of the multiple disruptions it has theorized to build its new world. In fact, in the light of the current crisis, all the principles that made the success of Macron candidate’s campaign turned to show the fragility of the president.
A Victory in the New Opium War
Although Trump is touting the “incredible deal” on trade that he struck with Xi Jinping this weekend, it’s unclear if the vague deal represents a true breakthrough. Yet Trump does appear to have won a concrete victory on drugs – getting China to classify fentanyl as a “controlled substance,” which should lead to a crackdown on exports.
Fentanyl and other synthetic opioids are now responsible for 41% of overdose deaths in the US, and American officials believe China is the leading source.In a statement, China’s Foreign Ministry said China has “decided to schedule the entire category of fentanyl-type substances as controlled substances, and start the process of revising relevant laws and regulations.”
China and the United States have “agreed to take active measures to strengthen cooperation on law enforcement and narcotics control,” including the control of fentanyl-type substances, it said.
The new designation for the synthetic opioid drug means people in China who sell fentanyl to the US “will be subject to China’s maximum penalty under the law,” according to a statement from the White House.
Fentanyl’s new designation is one result from their meeting. The US also agreed to maintain the 10% tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, instead of raising them to 25%, the White House said.
Fentanyl, an extremely powerful drug, is 50 to 100 times more potent than morphine and 30 to 50 times more potent than heroin.According to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 5,500 people died of synthetic opioid overdoses in 2014, most of them related to fentanyl. That’s an 80% increase over the number of deaths reported in 2013. Last year, the Drug Enforcement Administration issued a national alert stating that “drug incidents and overdoses related to fentanyl are occurring at an alarming rate.” In 2013, the Drug Enforcement Administration made 942 fentanyl seizures; in 2014, it made 3,344.“Beijing has been tardy in acting on its role in the fentanyl crisis,” writes Shuli Ren for Bloomberg. “But if it now moves quickly, President Xi Jinping will have plucked some very low-hanging fruit in his bid to improve relations with Washington.”
Trump last year declared the opioid crisis a public health emergency in the United States and brought up the issue with Xi when the two leaders met in Beijing in November 2017.
“America now has its own opium war, and China is coming to its rescue.”
Perhaps it’s that Chinese people have been living behind the Great Firewall for too long, oblivious to what’s happening in the rest of the world? The country has been very publicly blamed for the epidemic in the U.S. as well as in Canada, with President Donald Trump fuming in an August tweet that this “poison” is “pouring into the U.S. Postal System from China.” While China’s National Narcotics Control Commission has already placed more than two dozen fentanyl variants on its controlled substances list, it’s still very easy to buy opioids on Chinese websites as long as you can pay and provide a shipping address.
Equally likely, fentanyl is simply not a problem in China yet. Anesthetics are used sparingly there. According to the Pain and Policy Studies Group, per capita consumption of opioid anesthetics is only 7.05 milligrams, a tiny fraction compared to the U.S. Of analgesics applied in China’s hospitals, the main variant of fentanyl has a tiny 6.3 percent market share. Humanwell Healthcare Group Co., the largest producer there, only sells fentanyl in liquid injection form.
What’s Fentanyl?
Whereas the U.S. has a fentanyl crisis, this painkiller is still new to most Chinese. The main form is not commonly used in hospitals and its sales growth dropped in 2017
Source: CICC Research
As a result, whereas antibiotics abuse, substandard vaccines for infants, or gene-edited babies are hot topics in China, the middle class hasn’t bothered to engage in a conversation as to when opioids become poison instead of medicine. There’s no public outcry, and bureaucrats aren’t eager to act.
Meanwhile, China’s health care regulators have been too busy with internal shake-ups to bother with America’s narcotics problem. In March, Beijing restructured its various ministries, and created three healthcare-related regulators. In July, the bureaucrats’ jostling for power only intensified after Changsheng Bio-technology Co., one of China’s biggest vaccine makers, was found to have falsified production data on rabies vaccines for babies. Six top officials, including the head of the National Medicinal Product Administration (one of the three newly formed entities mainly responsible for drug reviews and approval) were fired.
China’s propaganda machine was quick to highlight its bargaining chip. America now has its own opium war, and China is coming to its rescue, China Fund – a financial media outlet overseen by the People’s Daily – quipped on Monday.
Beijing has been tardy in acting on its role in the fentanyl crisis. But if it now moves quickly, President Xi Jinping will have plucked some very low-hanging fruit in his bid to improve relations with Washington.
Pac-Man bin Pac-Man
An exclusive CNN report sheds new light on Riyadh’s possible motivation in the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. A former court insider, Khashoggi had come to believe that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was a dangerous, power-hungry leader. “He is like a beast ‘pac man,’” Khashoggi wrote to Omar Abdulaziz, a Saudi activist living in exile. “[T]he more victims he eats, the more he wants.”
CNN has been granted exclusive access to the correspondence between Khashoggi and Montreal-based activist Omar Abdulaziz. The messages shared by Abdulaziz, which include voice recordings, photos and videos, paint a picture of a man deeply troubled by what he regarded as the petulance of his kingdom’s powerful young prince.”The more victims he eats, the more he wants,” says Khashoggi in one message sent in May, just after a group of Saudi activists had been rounded up. “I will not be surprised if the oppression will reach even those who are cheering him on.”
The exchanges reveal a progression from talk to action — the pair had begun planning an online youth movement that would hold the Saudi state to account. “[Jamal] believed that MBS is the issue, is the problem and he said this kid should be stopped,” Abdulaziz said in an interview with CNN.But in August, when he believed their conversations may have been intercepted by Saudi authorities, a sense of foreboding descends over Khashoggi. “God help us,” he wrote.
Two months later, he was dead. ,Abdulaziz on Sunday launched a lawsuit against an Israeli company that invented the software he believes was used to hack his phone.”The hacking of my phone played a major role in what happened to Jamal, I am really sorry to say,” Abdelaziz told CNN. “The guilt is killing me.”
SIM cards and financial support
Abdulaziz began speaking out against the Saudi regime as a college student in Canada. His pointed criticisms of government policies drew the attention of the Saudi state, which canceled his university scholarship. Canada granted him asylum in 2014 and made him a permanent resident three years later.Researchers at the University of Toronto believe the Saudi government was spying on conversations between the activists, which contained much more than insults. “Khashoggi and Abdulaziz conceived plans to form an electronic army to engage young Saudis back home and debunk state propaganda on social media, leveraging Khashoggi’s establishment profile and the 27-year-old Abdulaziz’s 340,000-strong Twitter following,” CNN reports.
“The pair’s scheme involved two key elements that Saudi Arabia might well have viewed as hostile acts. The first involved sending foreign SIM cards to dissidents back home so they could tweet without being traced. The second was money.” According to Abdulaziz, Khashoggi pledged an initial $30,000 and promised to drum up support from rich donors under the radar.In one exchange, dated May this year, Abdulaziz writes to Khashoggi. “I sent you some ideas about the electronic army. By email.””Brilliant report,” Khashoggi replies. “I will try to sort out the money. We have to do something.”
In almost daily exchanges between October 2017 and August 2018, Khashoggi and Abdulaziz conceived plans to form an electronic army to engage young Saudis back home and debunk state propaganda on social media, leveraging Khashoggi’s establishment profile and the 27-year-old Abdulaziz’s 340,000-strong Twitter following.
The digital offensive, dubbed the “cyber bees,” had emerged from earlier discussions about creating a portal for documenting human rights abuses in their homeland as well an initiative to produce short films for mobile distribution. “We have no parliament; we just have Twitter,” said Abdulaziz, adding that Twitter is also the Saudi government’s strongest weapon. “Twitter is the only tool they’re using to fight and to spread their rumors. We’ve been attacked, we’ve been insulted, we’d been threatened so many times, and we decided to do something.”
The pair’s scheme involved two key elements that Saudi Arabia might well have viewed as hostile acts. The first involved sending foreign SIM cards to dissidents back home so they could tweet without being traced. The second was money. According to Abdulaziz, Khashoggi pledged an initial $30,000 and promised to drum up support from rich donors under the radar.In one exchange, dated May this year, Abdulaziz writes to Khashoggi. “I sent you some ideas about the electronic army. By email.”
A month later, another message sent by Abdulaziz confirms the first $5,000 transfer has arrived. Khashoggi replies with a thumbs up.But in early August, he says he received word from Saudi Arabia that government officials were aware of the pair’s online project. He passed the news to Khashoggi.
“How did they know?” asks Khashoggi in a message.
“There must have been a gap,” says Abdulaziz.
Three minutes pass before Khashoggi writes back: “God help us.”
The ‘hack’
Abdulaziz first spoke publicly about his contact with Khashoggi last month after researchers at the University of Toronto’s Citizen Lab reported his phone had been hacked by military-grade spyware.
According to Bill Marczak, a research fellow at the Citizen Lab, the software was the invention of an Israeli firm named NSO Group, and deployed at the behest of the Saudi Arabian government.
‘Tyranny has no logic’
The fact Abdulaziz’s phone contained spyware means Saudi officials would have been able to see the same 400 messages Abdulaziz exchanged with Khashoggi over the period.
The messages portray Khashoggi, a Saudi former establishment figure, becoming increasingly fearful for his country’s fate as bin Salman consolidates his power.
“He loves force, oppression and needs to show them off,” Khashoggi says of bin Salman, “but tyranny has no logic.”
Such discussions could be considered treasonous in Saudi Arabia, a country with one of the world’s worst records for free speech. In a sign Khashoggi and Abdulaziz were mindful of their security in exile, they flitted back and forth between phone calls, voice messages and chats on WhatsApp and other encrypted platforms like Telegram and Signal.As Khashoggi speculated about bin Salman’s future, Abdulaziz was already in the crown prince’s sights and was about to receive a visit with a message right from the top.
‘Message from MBS’
Last May, Abdulaziz said two Saudi government emissaries asked to meet with him in Montreal. He agreed and says he secretly recorded 10 hours of their conversations over the course of their five-day stay. He shared them with CNN.
Speaking in Arabic, the men, referred to only as Abdullah and Malek, tell Abdulaziz they have been sent on the orders of bin Salman himself, bypassing the usual channels like the Security Ministry. Bin Salman watches him on his Twitter feed, they say, and wants to offer him a job.”We have come to you with a message from Mohammed bin Salman and his assurance to you,” one of them says.
Abdelaziz’s recorded messages are telling because Saudi Arabia has always claimed its crown prince had nothing to do with plots like the one leading to Khashoggi’s death, blaming that incident on a failed rendition attempt, masterminded by advisers and subordinates from the security staff.
Dear Prudence
“As the world order shifted dramatically, George H. W. Bush steered the ship of state with experience, expertise, and—though it launched a million gibes—prudence,” writes Richard Fontaine in The Atlantic.
“Bush aimed not to force into existence a better world, but to adapt to and shape circumstances for America’s advantage. He sought not to roll geopolitical dice but rather to consider fully the consequences of both action and inaction. He seemingly wished to be judged not only on the victories accrued—Panama, Iraq, NAFTA, Germany, the Cold War—but also tragedies avoided: the wars not commenced, the chaos not unleashed, the blood and treasure saved rather than squandered.”
“Bush-style caution isn’t right for every era… [b]ut with the world in dramatic transformation, and with the geopolitical stakes at their very height, George H. W. Bush’s prudence was just what America needed. And the country could use a dose of it today.”
Source: CICC Research
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